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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Boston Bruins 0

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.

BOS winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT15115111331
BOS050507017

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:34PITTyler KennedyGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 19:45PITAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Kris Letang, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P3 5:14PITMike RuppUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:58PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:58BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 1:58BOSShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
  4. P1 5:36PITTyler Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P1 12:52PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 2:22BOSVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 7:37PITSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 11:43PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 11:43BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 12:00BOSMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 17:44BOSSteve Begin: Kneeing2 min
  12. P3 12:23PITJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 16:28BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Krejci
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITBOS
31Shots on goal17
1.7Expected goals1.4
52Shot attempts43
20Faceoffs won24
4Power plays4
18Penalty minutes28
20Hits19
16Blocked shots13
5Giveaways7
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 1.4 xGPIT 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1105 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.76 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.

BOS winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).