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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

St. Louis Blues 4, New York Rangers 3

Away

St. Louis Blues

4

Final

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.

NYR winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL142616416
NYR21108110329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:10STLBrad BoyesAssists: Jay McClement, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:52NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:08NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Vinny Prospal, Wade Redden · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:21STLMike WeaverUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 5:45STLErik JohnsonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 7:11NYRWade ReddenAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 8:24STLPaul KariyaGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:53STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:53NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:15STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 6:42STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 6:42NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 14:40STLMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 4:32NYRWade Redden: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 8:55STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 0:06STLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 0:49STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 10:22NYRWade Redden: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Anisimov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLNYR
16Shots on goal29
2.9Expected goals4.7
48Shot attempts56
25Faceoffs won31
2Power plays5
17Penalty minutes11
43Hits30
11Blocked shots16
3Giveaways5
6Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.7 xGSTL 2.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #277 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.96 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.

NYR winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).