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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Ottawa Senators 3, Atlanta Thrashers 6

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

ATL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT015313011339
ATL1921236627

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:35ATLEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Johnny Oduya, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:50ATLJim SlaterAssists: Todd White, Colby Armstrong · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:33OTTChris KellyAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:04ATLNik AntropovAssists: Pavel Kubina, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
  5. P2 17:04OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:47OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P3 3:56ATLNik AntropovPPGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Maxim Afinogenov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 5:34ATLColby ArmstrongUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG3–5
  9. P3 10:20ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Jim Slater, Todd White · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:59OTTAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:36ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:14OTTFilip Kuba: Closing hand on puck2 min
  4. P1 0:00OTTRyan Shannon: Interference2 min
  5. P2 9:17OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 11:04OTTMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 13:54ATLMark Popovic: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 2:27OTTAndy Sutton: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 5:52ATLPavel Kubina: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 16:09ATLEric Boulton: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 19:51ATLRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 19:51OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTATL
39Shots on goal27
2.8Expected goals2.6
68Shot attempts53
31Faceoffs won36
4Power plays6
14Penalty minutes10
11Hits15
14Blocked shots16
2Giveaways13
11Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.6 xGOTT 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #169 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

ATL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).