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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New Jersey Devils 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NJD0519011001125
TOR190906023226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:54TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:46NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. TOR Phil Kessel scored
  2. 2. NJD Zach Parise scored
  3. 3. TOR Nikolay Kulemin scored
  4. 4. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
  5. 5. TOR John Mitchell scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P2 2:32NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  2. P2 2:32TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 5:48NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P2 9:39TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 11:43TORNikolay Kulemin: Boarding2 min
  6. P3 5:09NJDPaul Martin: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 9:19TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
  8. P3 16:08TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 18:23NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Bozak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDTOR
25Shots on goal26
2.4Expected goals2.7
59Shot attempts70
34Faceoffs won22
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
32Hits24
23Blocked shots22
7Giveaways10
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.7 xGNJD 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #611 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).