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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Minnesota Wild 0, Nashville Predators 5

Away

Minnesota Wild

0

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN090404017
NSH312114111537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:07NSHColin WilsonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:03NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Dustin Boyd · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:21NSHJason ArnottAssists: Colin Wilson, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
  4. P2 2:19NSHMarcel GocAssists: Steve Sullivan, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
  5. P3 7:35NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Jason Arnott, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 2:49MINJohn Scott: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 8:10NSHMarcel Goc: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 19:09NSHMarcel Goc: Holding2 min
  4. P3 7:14MINJaime Sifers: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 19:48MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINNSH
17Shots on goal37
1.0Expected goals3.5
39Shot attempts63
25Faceoffs won42
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
16Hits19
12Blocked shots18
8Giveaways16
12Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.5 xGMIN 1.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1207 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.45 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).