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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Dallas Stars 2

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1141918331
DAL2120809229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:41DALSteve OttPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:01PHISimon GagneAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:55DALSteve OttAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:27PHIMike RichardsAssists: Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:55PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Daniel Brière · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:15PHIRyan Parent: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:38DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:38PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 4:51PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 4:51DALBrian Sutherby: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 11:30PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 16:20DALJere Lehtinen: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 19:31PHIChris Pronger: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Petersen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIDAL
31Shots on goal29
3.1Expected goals3.0
57Shot attempts63
28Faceoffs won26
1Power plays3
13Penalty minutes9
32Hits40
18Blocked shots18
7Giveaways10
5Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.0 xGPHI 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #704 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).