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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

San Jose Sharks 2, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS06116112234
VAN2131904326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:31VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:14VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Pavol Demitra · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:00SJSRyane CloweAssists: Joe Pavelski, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:48VANRyan JohnsonGWGAssists: Rick Rypien, Shane O'Brien · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 16:52SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Kent Huskins, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 2:45VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 8:14SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 11:24SJSJamie McGinn: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P1 14:11SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 3:09SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 3:09VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 12:59VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Marleau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSVAN
34Shots on goal26
3.3Expected goals2.9
74Shot attempts50
36Faceoffs won25
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
14Hits17
15Blocked shots16
3Giveaways6
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.9 xGSJS 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #901 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).