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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 18, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Chicago Blackhawks 3, Los Angeles Kings 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.

LAK winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI011113213337
LAK060308017

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:36CHITroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
  2. P3 2:48CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
  3. P3 6:08CHITomas KopeckyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:31LAKJustin Williams: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 7:32LAKRaitis Ivanans: Interference2 min
  3. P3 8:17LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  4. P3 8:17CHIBen Eager: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 8:17LAKRaitis Ivanans: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 16:21LAKRich Clune: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHILAK
37Shots on goal17
3.3Expected goals1.2
75Shot attempts36
24Faceoffs won37
5Power plays0
5Penalty minutes15
18Hits35
9Blocked shots18
12Giveaways22
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 1.2 xGCHI 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1157 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.

LAK winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).