Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 19, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Minnesota Wild 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.

CBJ winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN191605220
CBJ01111239432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:28MINMikko KoivuAssists: Antti Miettinen · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:42MINChuck KobasewAssists: Casey Wellman, Cam Barker · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:23CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: R.J. Umberger, Jared Boll · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
  4. P3 11:02CBJKris RussellAssists: Kristian Huselius, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:29CBJRick NashGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:22CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 0:48CBJMarc Methot: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 3:33MINChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:56MINMartin Havlat: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 18:11CBJNathan Paetsch: Holding2 min
  5. P1 19:24MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:44MINJames Sheppard: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 9:22CBJNathan Paetsch: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 10:55MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCBJ
20Shots on goal32
2.1Expected goals2.7
39Shot attempts59
15Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
18Hits31
21Blocked shots10
2Giveaways3
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGMIN 2.1 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #327 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.

CBJ winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).