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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 19, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Detroit Red Wings 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.

EDM winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET0915117021233
EDM2160403012324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:57EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:58EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Gilbert Brule · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:51DETPatrick EavesAssists: Kris Draper, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:59DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Ryan Potulny scored
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  3. 3. EDM Gilbert Brule scored
  4. 4. DET Jason Williams scored
  5. 5. EDM Robert Nilsson stopped
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 12:54DETNicklas Lidstrom: Interference2 min
  2. P2 17:55EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
  3. P3 7:11EDMDustin Penner: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETEDM
33Shots on goal24
2.7Expected goals2.0
76Shot attempts44
25Faceoffs won26
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
18Hits27
12Blocked shots23
9Giveaways23
9Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.0 xGDET 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #314 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.75 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.

EDM winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).