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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 19, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

New York Islanders 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)

Away

New York Islanders

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Anaheim Ducks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYI2122170200431
ANA21301121411539

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:53NYIRichard ParkAssists: Jon Sim · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:15ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Scott Niedermayer, Todd Marchant · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:09ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Teemu Selanne, Kyle Chipchura · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P1 19:02NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Richard Park · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 2:42NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Mark Streit, John Tavares · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P2 14:31NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
  7. P3 9:53ANAJason BlakePPAssists: Steve Eminger, Saku Koivu · Deflected, 0.18 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:28ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
  9. OT 0:14ANASaku KoivuGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P2 2:35ANAScott Niedermayer: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:23NYIFreddy Meyer: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:23ANAMatt Beleskey: Diving2 min
  4. P2 14:02ANARyan Carter: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 1:02NYIDylan Reese: Interference2 min
  6. P3 4:08ANALubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 7:57NYIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:39NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 11:39ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIANA
31Shots on goal39
2.7Expected goals3.3
44Shot attempts71
23Faceoffs won33
3Power plays2
8Penalty minutes10
25Hits37
16Blocked shots5
6Giveaways9
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.3 xGNYI 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANANYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #29 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.49 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).