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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 20, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

PIT winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CAR190411214329
PIT041711004225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:48CARZach BoychukAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P2 19:42PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 13:05PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:00CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Eric Staal, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. OT 4:59CARJamie McBainGWGAssists: Chad LaRose, Bryan Rodney · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 6:43PITTyler Kennedy: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P2 10:18CARBrian Pothier: Interference2 min
  3. P2 18:45CARBrian Pothier: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P3 3:57PITMike Rupp: Holding2 min
  5. P3 5:35PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 8:47CARErik Cole: Holding2 min
  7. P3 9:14PITAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
  8. P3 17:06PITPascal Dupuis: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARPIT
29Shots on goal25
2.1Expected goals2.2
52Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won28
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
20Hits36
13Blocked shots15
6Giveaways9
5Takeaways0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.2 xGCAR 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #143 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.32 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

PIT winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).