Sat, Mar 20, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 112 | 17 | 429 |
| DAL | 210 | 28 | 17 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 13:55DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:31DALMike RibeiroAssists: Krys Barch, Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 19:58OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 5:11OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Chris Campoli · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 16:37DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P2 19:07DALJamie BennAssists: James Neal, Brandon Segal · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 4:33DALTrevor DaleyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 18:33OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Matt Cullen, Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:51DALMark Fistric: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:54OTTChris Phillips: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:01OTTMatt Carkner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:32DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54DALBrandon Segal: Kneeing2 min
- P2 16:48OTTMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P3 9:00DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:11OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:17DALMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).