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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 20, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL1100916021227
TOR11311007032333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:05TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:26MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Scott Gomez · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:15TORPhil KesselAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:54MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
  2. 2. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn scored
  3. 3. TOR Nikolay Kulemin scored
  4. 4. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  5. 5. TOR John Mitchell scored
  6. 6. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 4:26TORGarnet Exelby: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 15:05MTLScott Gomez: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:44TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 8:46TORChristian Hanson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 18:38TORJamie Lundmark: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P3 12:31TORFredrik Sjostrom: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTOR
27Shots on goal33
3.0Expected goals2.1
68Shot attempts60
23Faceoffs won30
6Power plays1
2Penalty minutes12
28Hits25
17Blocked shots22
10Giveaways10
5Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.1 xGMTL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #528 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.74 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).