Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 20, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Philadelphia Flyers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 5

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 60% of the time.

ATL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1913015227
ATL2911128528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:48ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:42ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P1 8:16PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Chris Pronger, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:23ATLNik AntropovGWGAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Evgeny Artyukhin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:34PHIBlair BettsAssists: Darroll Powe, Ian Laperriere · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:43ATLBryan LittleAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:58ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Toby Enstrom, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:39ATLJim Slater: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:39PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:49PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 3:49ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 8:43ATLNik Antropov: Holding2 min
  6. P1 17:30ATLJim Slater: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 19:00PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 3:08ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 16:33PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 12:11PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 12:11ATLNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 18:56PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 19:44ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIATL
27Shots on goal28
2.6Expected goals3.1
60Shot attempts47
35Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
18Penalty minutes20
16Hits20
10Blocked shots21
7Giveaways6
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.1 xGPHI 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #575 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 60% of the time.

ATL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).