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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 20, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 1

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF11818110336
FLA05117010132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:26BUFJochen HechtAssists: Paul Gaustad, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:54BUFPatrick KaletaGWGAssists: Adam Mair, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:04FLAByron BitzAssists: Kamil Kreps, Gregory Campbell · Tip-in, 0.32 xG2–1
  4. P3 13:49BUFMike GrierAssists: Paul Gaustad, Matt Ellis · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:06FLAJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:19FLAJason Garrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 14:19FLANathan Horton: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:19FLANathan Horton: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 16:53BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 3:37BUFJason Pominville: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 7:40BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
  8. P2 13:24BUFAdam Mair: Holding2 min
  9. P3 1:54BUFCraig Rivet: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 10:04BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 19:35FLABryan McCabe: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Roy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFFLA
36Shots on goal32
2.1Expected goals3.2
49Shot attempts61
27Faceoffs won39
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
14Hits38
11Blocked shots9
2Giveaways6
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.2 xGBUF 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLABUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #821 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).