Sat, Mar 20, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 24 | 09 | 115 | 328 |
| TBL | 113 | 013 | 08 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Eric Fehr, David Steckel · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 6:54TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Teddy Purcell, Brandon Bochenski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:47WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 7:20WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:23WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:13WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:10TBLMike Lundin: Holding2 min
- P1 18:59TBLPaul Szczechura: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:58WSHEric Fehr: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:49TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:49WSHScott Walker: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:03WSHJohn Erskine: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:50TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:50WSHTom Poti: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:39TBLStephane Veilleux: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:31WSHEric Fehr: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:08TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).