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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 20, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Detroit Red Wings 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
DET01731302014454
VAN2801311001332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:10VANKyle WellwoodAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Shane O'Brien · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:38VANShane O'BrienAssists: Mason Raymond, Kyle Wellwood · Snap, 0.01 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:34DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 12:39DETPavel DatsyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:39DETValtteri FilppulaSHAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:40VANDaniel SedinAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
  7. OT 4:59DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 1:14VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:47DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
  3. P2 17:03DETNicklas Lidstrom: Holding2 min
  4. P3 11:23VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Zetterberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETVAN
54Shots on goal32
3.6Expected goals2.3
81Shot attempts49
30Faceoffs won29
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
12Hits11
6Blocked shots17
6Giveaways9
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.3 xGDET 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #199 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.97 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).