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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

New York Rangers 1, Boston Bruins 2

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

BOS winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR090619124
BOS01217112231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 16:36BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Andrew Ference, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P3 10:20BOSDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P3 16:56NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Sean Avery, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 2:40BOSSteve Begin: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:40NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:34BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 4:59NYRVinny Prospal: Boarding2 min
  5. P1 4:59BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 12:05BOSMark Recchi: Charging2 min
  7. P1 12:43BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 12:43NYROlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 13:54BOSDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
  10. P1 15:29NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
  11. P1 18:07NYROlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 8:30BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking double minor4 min
  13. P2 19:33BOSMiroslav Satan: Interference2 min
  14. P2 19:59NYROlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 6:24BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 6:24NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Christensen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRBOS
24Shots on goal31
2.4Expected goals2.4
45Shot attempts51
24Faceoffs won37
6Power plays3
17Penalty minutes23
17Hits25
11Blocked shots14
5Giveaways3
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.4 xGNYR 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1070 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.

BOS winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).