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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Calgary Flames 3, Minnesota Wild 4

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY110111111332
MIN2102605421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:43CGYSteve StaiosPPAssists: Niklas Hagman, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:17MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:18MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Owen Nolan, Cam Barker · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:05MINChuck KobasewAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P2 5:52CGYIan WhiteAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:23MINChuck KobasewGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
  7. P3 5:49CGYEric NystromAssists: Cory Sarich, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 1:39CGYAles Kotalik: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:18MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:40CGYEric Nystrom: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackMIN attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYMIN
32Shots on goal21
1.8Expected goals1.8
57Shot attempts35
37Faceoffs won29
1Power plays2
4Penalty minutes2
15Hits8
7Blocked shots17
1Giveaways6
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.8 xGCGY 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #543 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.43 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

MIN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).