Sun, Mar 21, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 012 | 19 | 231 |
| FLA | 314 | 08 | 218 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04TBLSteve DownieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:12FLANathan HortonPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:42FLADavid BoothAssists: Byron Bitz, Keith Ballard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 18:28FLACory StillmanGWGAssists: Nathan Horton · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 2:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 4:03FLAStephen WeissAssists: Bryan Allen, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 15:34FLARadek DvorakAssists: Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:09FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:12FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:12TBLZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 13:12TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:12TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:39TBLAlex Tanguay: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00FLADavid Booth: Holding2 min
- P2 9:55TBLDavid Hale: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:49FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:28TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:59TBLZenon Konopka: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reinprecht won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).