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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 2

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH010113216339
STL1120617225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:28STLCarlo ColaiacovoPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Alexander Steen · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:03NSHDustin BoydAssists: Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:29STLDavid PerronAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:26NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Steve Sullivan, Cal O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P3 17:14NSHDustin BoydGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Francis Bouillon · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 14:35NSHCody Franson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 19:17NSHSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 4:20STLT.J. Oshie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 7:28NSHFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
  5. P2 8:33STLKeith Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 0:19STLAndy McDonald: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
39Shots on goal25
3.5Expected goals1.5
63Shot attempts45
31Faceoffs won38
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
9Hits18
10Blocked shots13
3Giveaways6
1Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 1.5 xGNSH 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #408 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.89 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).