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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.

PHI winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL210011110331
PHI016019110145

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:04ATLRon HainseyAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:01ATLTodd WhiteGWGAssists: Jim Slater, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P3 11:56PHIMike RichardsAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
  4. P3 16:53ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 17:04ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 18:58ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 1:54PHIBlair Betts: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 7:05PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:23ATLEric Boulton: Interference2 min
  6. P3 4:00ATLJim Slater: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 4:00PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 5:05PHIArron Asham: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Betts
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLPHI
31Shots on goal45
1.5Expected goals5.2
42Shot attempts85
24Faceoffs won35
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
23Hits25
22Blocked shots8
8Giveaways10
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 5.2 xGATL 1.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1002 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.91 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 94% of the time.

PHI winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).