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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

San Jose Sharks 1, Edmonton Oilers 5

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS0130817128
EDM2811126525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:10EDMRobert NilssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:23EDMDustin PennerGWGAssists: Ryan Potulny, Marc-Antoine Pouliot · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:14EDMFernando PisaniAssists: Tom Gilbert, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
  4. P3 12:52EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ethan Moreau, Fernando Pisani · Snap, 0.21 xG0–4
  5. P3 15:05EDMAaron JohnsonAssists: Dustin Penner, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
  6. P3 16:58SJSRyane CloweAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 5:58SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:58EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:38SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:38EDMRyan Potulny: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 4:22SJSRyane Clowe: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 11:26EDMTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
  7. P2 19:50EDMAaron Johnson: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 13:55SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  9. P3 14:37EDMTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 17:00SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 17:00EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 17:15EDMMike Comrie: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 17:15SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 18:17EDMAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Cogliano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSEDM
28Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals2.2
81Shot attempts36
31Faceoffs won29
4Power plays2
21Penalty minutes25
30Hits19
4Blocked shots29
13Giveaways16
10Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.2 xGSJS 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1066 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.49 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).