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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 21, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Colorado Avalanche 2, Anaheim Ducks 5

Away

Colorado Avalanche

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL0601626228
ANA210213110533

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:43ANAJason BlakePPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Scott Niedermayer · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:43ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:34ANATeemu SelannePPGWGAssists: Scott Niedermayer, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:45ANATroy BodieSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
  5. P3 2:06COLDarcy TuckerAssists: Chris Stewart, Ruslan Salei · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
  6. P3 5:15COLRuslan SaleiAssists: TJ Galiardi, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:50ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:48COLPeter Mueller: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:18COLMarek Svatos: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 15:44ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 15:44COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:19COLJohn-Michael Liles: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:26COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 7:26ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 8:29ANASteve Eminger: Interference2 min
  9. P2 11:43ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
  10. P2 16:11COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 19:28ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 7:17COLRuslan Salei: Tripping2 min · PPG
  13. P3 12:53COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLANA
28Shots on goal33
2.5Expected goals4.1
46Shot attempts61
28Faceoffs won22
3Power plays6
22Penalty minutes16
28Hits20
14Blocked shots4
10Giveaways9
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 4.1 xGCOL 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #463 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.

ANA winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).