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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 22, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.

DET winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT0101908127
DET110110113333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:03DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.00 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:38DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–2
  3. P2 16:54PITPascal DupuisUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:20DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:23PITRuslan Fedotenko: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:31PITSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
  3. P1 8:31DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 14:24PITSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
  5. P2 1:35PITJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 1:35DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
  7. P2 4:12DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
  8. P3 5:52PITBill Guerin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 8:24PITAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 0:00PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 0:00DETJimmy Howard: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 0:00DETHenrik Zetterberg: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zetterberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITDET
27Shots on goal33
1.3Expected goals2.8
43Shot attempts63
26Faceoffs won32
1Power plays4
14Penalty minutes10
32Hits22
16Blocked shots7
8Giveaways9
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.8 xGPIT 1.3 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1017 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.

DET winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).