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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 22, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 0

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT15011111227
MTL06013010029

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:15OTTPeter ReginGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P3 8:17OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:32OTTNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 7:01OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 8:17OTTAnton Volchenkov: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P3 1:59OTTMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 2:19MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 7:34MTLDominic Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 10:58OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTMTL
27Shots on goal29
1.9Expected goals2.5
52Shot attempts58
30Faceoffs won29
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
17Hits14
14Blocked shots15
3Giveaways6
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.5 xGOTT 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1118 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).