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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA18011310429
TOR019012112143

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:30FLADavid BoothUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P3 1:25FLADavid BoothGWGAssists: Bryan McCabe, Rostislav Olesz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P3 11:38FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Radek Dvorak, Shawn Matthias · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
  4. P3 17:40TORFredrik SjostromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:29FLAJason GarrisonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:37FLAJason Garrison: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 13:38FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:38TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 16:33TORGarnet Exelby: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 17:02FLADavid Booth: Interference2 min
  6. P1 18:05FLAKeith Ballard: Interference2 min
  7. P2 12:24TORLuca Caputi: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 2:16TORFrancois Beauchemin: Holding2 min
  9. P3 5:32FLANathan Horton: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 8:43FLANathan Horton: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 15:26FLANick Tarnasky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Bozak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATOR
29Shots on goal43
2.4Expected goals3.2
52Shot attempts88
28Faceoffs won46
3Power plays6
17Penalty minutes11
19Hits29
25Blocked shots10
8Giveaways14
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.2 xGFLA 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #926 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).