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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New Jersey Devils 6

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.

NJD winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ0102814322
NJD19410110629

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:01NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:14NJDPaul MartinPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.33 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:40CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kristian Huselius, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P2 12:32NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Mike Mottau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P2 15:40NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:07NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Mike Mottau, Ilya Kovalchuk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
  7. P2 19:40CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
  8. P3 6:00CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
  9. P3 12:52NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 11:26CBJRick Nash: Roughing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:23CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:21NJDBrian Rolston: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 0:34CBJKristian Huselius: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:24CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 8:57NJDDean McAmmond: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 8:57CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 8:57NJDDean McAmmond: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 8:57NJDDean McAmmond: Misconduct10 min
  10. P2 10:04NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 10:47CBJKristian Huselius: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 12:38CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 12:38NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 18:13CBJDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJNJD
22Shots on goal29
1.6Expected goals3.2
34Shot attempts47
32Faceoffs won26
3Power plays6
19Penalty minutes23
33Hits13
10Blocked shots4
2Giveaways8
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.2 xGCBJ 1.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #266 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.

NJD winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).