Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Boston Bruins 4, Atlanta Thrashers 0

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

ATL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS110212111433
ATL07010010027

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:25BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:59BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:56BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
  4. P3 1:46BOSSteve BeginAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:00ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:00BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 1:29ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P3 6:16BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 9:03BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P3 15:16ATLEric Boulton: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSATL
33Shots on goal27
3.1Expected goals2.3
61Shot attempts53
24Faceoffs won26
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
13Hits18
14Blocked shots15
3Giveaways15
8Takeaways20

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.3 xGBOS 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1163 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.60 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

ATL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).