Tue, Mar 23, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 210 | 09 | 00 | 229 |
| TBL | 08 | 17 | 111 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:12TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Teddy Purcell, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 18:59CARErik ColeAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Brian Pothier · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:17CARChad LaRoseAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:03TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Kurtis Foster · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 0:29TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Mike Lundin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 16:48CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:08CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:08TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:31CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45CARRay Whitney: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).