Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 1

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.

NSH winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL051524314
NSH01411209135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:10DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 16:02NSHShea WeberAssists: Steve Sullivan, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:30DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Brad Richards · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:00DALMatt NiskanenAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brandon Segal · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:11NSHFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
  2. P1 4:40DALSteve Ott: Holding2 min
  3. P1 13:22NSHMarcel Goc: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 13:41DALMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:14NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 16:14DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:55DALJere Lehtinen: Holding2 min
  8. P3 5:00NSHDustin Boyd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 11:13DALKrys Barch: Charging2 min
  10. P3 19:26DALNicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALNSH
14Shots on goal35
1.7Expected goals2.5
32Shot attempts70
22Faceoffs won29
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
15Hits12
24Blocked shots10
8Giveaways14
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.5 xGDAL 1.7 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #823 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.

NSH winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).