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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Anaheim Ducks 1, Calgary Flames 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA061908123
CGY1911118328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:11CGYNigel DawesPPAssists: Steve Staios, Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:27ANAScott NiedermayerAssists: Matt Beleskey, Todd Marchant · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:25CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P3 3:05CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 2:00CGYBrett Sutter: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:00ANABrett Festerling: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:36ANAAaron Ward: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 15:04ANASteve Eminger: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACGY
23Shots on goal28
2.0Expected goals2.7
54Shot attempts58
17Faceoffs won26
0Power plays2
9Penalty minutes5
17Hits9
17Blocked shots15
10Giveaways8
11Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.7 xGANA 2.0 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #994 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).