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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 23, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN110112011233
EDM271609322

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:02EDMTom GilbertAssists: Fernando Pisani, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:58EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Ryan Potulny · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:21VANMason RaymondAssists: Michael Grabner, Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:01EDMAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Tom Gilbert, Gilbert Brule · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 16:12VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:38VANChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
  2. P2 10:29EDMTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
  3. P2 17:18EDMAaron Johnson: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 7:53EDMDean Arsene: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 12:42VANTanner Glass: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Potulny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANEDM
33Shots on goal22
2.5Expected goals2.6
75Shot attempts36
28Faceoffs won19
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
20Hits31
9Blocked shots22
8Giveaways16
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.6 xGVAN 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #839 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).