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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 24, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT01729111052342
WSH0911328023432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:09WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:21PITMax TalbotAssists: Brooks Orpik, Craig Adams · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:39PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:36WSHAlexander SeminSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:32WSHEric FehrAssists: Mike Green, Eric Belanger · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:54PITJordan StaalAssists: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Kris Letang scored
  2. 2. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  4. 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
  5. 5. PIT Bill Guerin stopped
  6. 6. WSH Alexander Semin scored
  7. 7. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
  8. 8. WSH Mike Knuble scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:19WSHTom Poti: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 14:03WSHTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 6:01PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 10:12WSHAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 13:44WSHTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 4:11WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITWSH
42Shots on goal32
3.0Expected goals2.8
70Shot attempts65
28Faceoffs won28
5Power plays1
2Penalty minutes10
30Hits34
18Blocked shots18
12Giveaways12
8Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.8 xGPIT 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #106 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.47 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

WSH winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).