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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 24, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Los Angeles Kings 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.

COL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK1506214051330
COL3180903002430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:38COLMatt HendricksAssists: Kevin Porter, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:00LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sean O'Donnell · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:21COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Peter Mueller, Brett Clark · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:08COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P3 0:40LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:39LAKAlex FrolovPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
  2. 2. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  3. 3. COL Peter Mueller scored
  4. 4. LAK Jack Johnson scored
  5. 5. COL Chris Stewart scored
  6. 6. LAK Ryan Smyth stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:42LAKBrad Richardson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:30LAKSean O'Donnell: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 17:15LAKFreddy Modin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:20LAKJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:23LAKBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 16:13COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 19:54COLScott Hannan: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 17:11COLBrett Clark: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCOL
30Shots on goal30
2.7Expected goals3.2
61Shot attempts51
29Faceoffs won27
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes6
21Hits19
12Blocked shots20
8Giveaways11
5Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.2 xGLAK 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #185 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.06 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.

COL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).