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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 24, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Anaheim Ducks 1, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA0140819131
VAN28112110430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:31VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:48VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:19VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P3 8:04ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:30VANRyan KeslerENAssists: Alexander Edler, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:27ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:27VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:39ANABobby Ryan: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  4. P1 11:24VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P1 15:09ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 15:09VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 0:08VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 3:28VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  9. P2 11:05ANATodd Marchant: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 16:08ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 16:08VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 2:45ANAGeorge Parros: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 2:45VANDarcy Hordichuk: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 13:10VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAVAN
31Shots on goal30
2.3Expected goals3.1
59Shot attempts50
20Faceoffs won33
4Power plays2
29Penalty minutes33
21Hits14
7Blocked shots15
3Giveaways6
6Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.1 xGANA 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #933 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).