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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Boston Bruins 3

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

BOS winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL282713518
BOS119112119350

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:49TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Mike Lundin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:05TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:33BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:50TBLPaul SzczechuraUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P2 10:42BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: David Krejci, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P2 19:34TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Kurtis Foster · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
  7. P3 3:00TBLPaul SzczechuraPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.15 xG5–2
  8. P3 11:50BOSMark RecchiAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 18:52BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 18:52TBLSteve Downie: Elbowing2 min
  3. P2 11:43TBLAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 17:54BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 1:22BOSDennis Wideman: Kneeing2 min · PPG
  6. P3 3:28BOSMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 7:20TBLAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
  8. P3 17:53TBLTodd Fedoruk: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLBOS
18Shots on goal50
2.7Expected goals3.7
32Shot attempts69
34Faceoffs won25
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
12Hits22
13Blocked shots4
2Giveaways4
0Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.7 xGTBL 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #397 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

BOS winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).