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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Calgary Flames 2, New York Islanders 3

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.

NYI winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY1615011222
NYI1120228322

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:23NYITrent HunterAssists: Frans Nielsen, Jon Sim · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:13CGYNigel DawesAssists: Cory Sarich, Eric Nystrom · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:08CGYEric NystromAssists: Jamal Mayers, Niklas Hagman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P3 0:28NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:31NYIBruno GervaisGWGAssists: Mark Streit · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 10:45NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:01NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
  3. P1 14:01NYIKyle Okposo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P2 10:16NYIBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 15:39CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 9:30CGYNigel Dawes: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 12:05NYITim Jackman: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Conroy won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYNYI
22Shots on goal22
1.1Expected goals2.1
50Shot attempts50
31Faceoffs won16
5Power plays2
4Penalty minutes10
28Hits29
17Blocked shots19
12Giveaways10
4Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 2.1 xGCGY 1.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYICGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #595 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.

NYI winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).