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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)

Away

Minnesota Wild

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MIN031112611421
PHI2121170600335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:39PHIOskars BartulisAssists: Ian Laperriere, Blair Betts · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:18PHISimon GagneUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:34MINMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:11PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 6:37MINMartin HavlatAssists: Guillaume Latendresse · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:23MINJohn ScottAssists: Owen Nolan, Andrew Brunette · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:33MINKyle BrodziakGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 0:55MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 18:07MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:04PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 1:27PHILukas Krajicek: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 13:30MINGuillaume Latendresse: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 9:43MINJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 9:43PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 17:05PHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 17:05MINMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINPHI
21Shots on goal35
1.4Expected goals3.1
46Shot attempts69
23Faceoffs won31
2Power plays3
10Penalty minutes8
29Hits24
18Blocked shots11
12Giveaways12
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.1 xGMIN 1.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #275 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.74 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 7% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).