Thu, Mar 25, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 112 | 113 | 05 | 1 | 243 |
| CAR | 213 | 09 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11CARJamie McBainPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:09CARBryan RodneyAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 1:43WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 2:12WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jason Chimera, John Erskine · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Sergei Samsonov stopped
- 2. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. CAR Ray Whitney scored
- 6. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
- 7. CAR Eric Staal stopped
- 8. WSH Tomas Fleischmann stopped
- 9. CAR Chad LaRose scored
- 10. WSH Mike Green stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:29WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:30CARTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:56WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min
- P2 2:20CARDrayson Bowman: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:36WSHTom Poti: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47CARErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 12:02WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:20WSHEric Fehr: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).