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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Chicago Blackhawks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 8

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CBJ winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI010113218341
CBJ2941627832

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:32CBJMike CommodoreAssists: Jakub Voracek, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:08CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Rick Nash, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:14CHIKris VersteegAssists: John Madden, Nick Boynton · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:58CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Anton Stralman, Samuel Pahlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:02CBJJakub VoracekGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–4
  6. P2 14:17CBJAntoine VermetteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
  7. P2 19:11CBJAndrew MurrayAssists: Samuel Pahlsson · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–6
  8. P3 1:39CBJAntoine VermettePPAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–7
  9. P3 3:49CBJMike BlundenAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–8
  10. P3 5:16CHITomas KopeckyPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–8
  11. P3 15:34CHIAdam BurishAssists: Colin Fraser, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–8
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:34CHIAdam Burish: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:34CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:54CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 8:40CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 13:40CBJAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
  6. P2 12:10CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 19:46CHITomas Kopecky: Boarding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 4:55CBJKris Russell: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Brassard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHICBJ
41Shots on goal32
3.9Expected goals2.7
76Shot attempts44
27Faceoffs won29
5Power plays2
9Penalty minutes15
16Hits33
8Blocked shots16
3Giveaways2
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGCHI 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #373 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CBJ winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).