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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Florida Panthers 1, Montréal Canadiens 4

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.

MTL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0607111124
MTL21008213431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:40MTLBenoit PouliotUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:38MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P3 16:24FLARadek DvorakAssists: Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P3 18:36MTLTomas PlekanecENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:52MTLBrian GiontaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:23MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 3:03MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P2 5:42FLARostislav Olesz: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 16:53MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
  5. P2 18:09MTLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
  6. P3 6:15MTLRoman Hamrlik: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 8:18MTLAndrei Markov: Diving2 min
  8. P3 8:18FLAByron Bitz: Holding the stick2 min
  9. P3 13:25FLAKamil Kreps: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAMTL
24Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals4.1
61Shot attempts58
27Faceoffs won21
5Power plays2
6Penalty minutes12
11Hits15
15Blocked shots23
3Giveaways10
3Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 4.1 xGFLA 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #924 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.

MTL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).