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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 25, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Los Angeles Kings 1, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Los Angeles Kings

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK0609116131
STL14110112326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:57STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Roman Polak, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:06STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P3 4:38LAKDustin BrownPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:00STLPaul KariyaAssists: Eric Brewer, Mike Weaver · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:19STLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 7:05STLB.J. Crombeen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 8:24STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 8:52LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 9:27STLCarlo Colaiacovo: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 0:15STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 0:15LAKSean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 0:15STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 3:04STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 11:37STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 15:34LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Stoll
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKSTL
31Shots on goal26
2.0Expected goals2.2
63Shot attempts39
30Faceoffs won25
7Power plays2
6Penalty minutes16
10Hits24
6Blocked shots19
5Giveaways5
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.2 xGLAK 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1019 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.84 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).