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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 26, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Minnesota Wild 2, Detroit Red Wings 6

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN091919227
DET013419210642

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:19DETJohan FranzenAssists: Jason Williams · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:32DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Johan Franzen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:03DETJonathan EricssonSHGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P2 11:23DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Johan Franzen, Jonathan Ericsson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
  5. P2 16:07MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Andrew Ebbett · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
  6. P3 2:09MINOwen NolanAssists: James Sheppard, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.02 xG2–4
  7. P3 5:29DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–5
  8. P3 7:26DETDrew MillerAssists: Jason Williams, Kris Draper · Snap, 0.02 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:07MINAntti Miettinen: Holding2 min
  2. P1 4:36MINNick Schultz: Delaying game2 min
  3. P1 11:21MINJohn Scott: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 16:35DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 1:31MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 3:16MINAntti Miettinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 7:45DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
  8. P2 9:01DETJohan Franzen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P2 15:58DETPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 3:38MINNick Schultz: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:11MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
  12. P3 12:45DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P3 17:59MINMartin Havlat: Holding2 min
  14. P3 18:51MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  15. P3 18:51MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ebbett won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINDET
27Shots on goal42
2.1Expected goals3.0
37Shot attempts74
33Faceoffs won33
5Power plays9
20Penalty minutes10
33Hits17
15Blocked shots4
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.0 xGMIN 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #452 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.82 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).