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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 26, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Anaheim Ducks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA110014216340
EDM010111115236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:18ANAGeorge ParrosAssists: Ryan Carter, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:52EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Tom Gilbert, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 12:30ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
  4. P3 14:05ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:40EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 14:17EDMJeff Deslauriers: Interference2 min
  2. P2 2:37ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 2:37EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 7:49ANARyan Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 11:25ANASheldon Brookbank: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 19:34ANANick Bonino: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 3:32ANASaku Koivu: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 5:38EDMGilbert Brule: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 9:45ANARyan Carter: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 11:00EDMRyan Whitney: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 11:29ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 11:29EDMDean Arsene: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 12:13EDMTaylor Chorney: Slashing2 min · PPG
  14. P3 14:08ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 14:08EDMDean Arsene: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 14:08ANAMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 14:08EDMDean Arsene: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 18:08ANABrendan Mikkelson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  19. P3 19:31ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Bonino
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAEDM
40Shots on goal36
4.1Expected goals3.1
72Shot attempts63
31Faceoffs won27
4Power plays7
36Penalty minutes30
11Hits12
13Blocked shots18
10Giveaways19
6Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.1 xGANA 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #658 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.46 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).