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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Calgary Flames 0, Boston Bruins 5

Away

Calgary Flames

0

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

BOS winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY01201108031
BOS11428213535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:08BOSDennis SeidenbergPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Mark Recchi · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:29BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:15BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P3 4:24BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–4
  5. P3 5:51BOSMark RecchiAssists: Marco Sturm, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 13:06CGYCraig Conroy: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 0:31CGYCraig Conroy: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 4:34CGYRene Bourque: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  4. P2 8:02BOSJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min
  5. P2 8:02CGYEric Nystrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 9:05BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P2 11:28BOSSteve Begin: Interference2 min
  8. P2 15:27CGYRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:03CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 5:03BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 7:21BOSJohnny Boychuk: Elbowing5 min
  12. P3 7:21BOSJohnny Boychuk: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYBOS
31Shots on goal35
1.9Expected goals2.7
54Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won39
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes26
18Hits17
5Blocked shots14
1Giveaways4
0Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.7 xGCGY 1.9 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1197 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.50 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

BOS winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).