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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1701208127
PIT1711727431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:02PHIArron AshamAssists: Blair Betts · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:02PITChris KunitzAssists: Jordan Leopold, Marc-Andre Fleury · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:03PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:32PITMatt CookeAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:31PITRuslan FedotenkoPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 13:46PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
  2. P1 17:01PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:17PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 16:19PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 1:55PITJay McKee: Holding2 min
  6. P3 2:36PHIChris Pronger: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 7:59PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 10:57PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 10:57PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 14:24PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 14:45PITMike Rupp: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIPIT
27Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.8
46Shot attempts59
31Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
30Hits28
15Blocked shots5
2Giveaways3
3Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.8 xGPHI 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #855 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.06 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.

PIT winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).