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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)

Away

New York Rangers

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYR21501301000238
TOR0101121812332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:25NYRPA ParenteauAssists: Olli Jokinen, Michal Rozsival · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:49NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Erik Christensen, Michal Rozsival · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:33TORJohn MitchellAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Luca Caputi · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P3 16:25TORTomas KaberleAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. OT 0:39TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P2 3:50TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
  2. P2 17:41NYRVinny Prospal: Boarding2 min
  3. P3 3:44TORLuca Caputi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P3 6:41NYROlli Jokinen: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Prospal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRTOR
38Shots on goal32
2.9Expected goals2.5
63Shot attempts63
24Faceoffs won28
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
29Hits28
16Blocked shots20
3Giveaways9
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.5 xGNYR 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #291 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).