Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 27, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Florida Panthers 2, Ottawa Senators 3

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

OTT winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA051918222
OTT0921115325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:59FLAStephen WeissAssists: Cory Stillman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:02OTTMatt CullenAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:40OTTPeter ReginAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 13:14FLASteve ReinprechtPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P2 4:32OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  2. P2 4:32FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 18:25FLARadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 1:25FLABryan McCabe: Illegal equipment2 min · PPG
  5. P3 11:10FLABryan Allen: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 11:10FLAStephen Weiss: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 11:10OTTErik Karlsson: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:19OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 12:52OTTAlex Kovalev: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P3 13:32OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Matthias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAOTT
22Shots on goal25
2.5Expected goals3.4
49Shot attempts55
30Faceoffs won28
3Power plays3
13Penalty minutes13
24Hits27
18Blocked shots15
15Giveaways6
15Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.4 xGFLA 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #759 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.30 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

OTT winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).